The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts 7 million people will lose or drop their employment-based health insurance plans by 2022. While that number includes the unemployed and those who opt to be uninsured, the number is already higher than the 4 million estimated in August 2012 and is expected to increase even more to 24 million in 2016.
CBO revised its forecast in response to tax law changes made under the fiscal cliff deal in January.
The CBO stated that benefits aren't as valuable when tax rates are lower because employer plans aren't taxed. Lower income employees may be eligible for a subsidy in the exchange, making it financially beneficial for them to forgo employer plans.
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