XL Group's chief executive says Superstorm Sandy will not be a capital event for the insurance industry, but he does think it will change the industry's perception of risk.
“When this is all said and done, I don't think any of us are going to feel that people were as well insured as they could have been,” says CEO Michael S. McGavick, speaking Nov. 5 during a conference call to discuss the insurer's third-quarter earnings. He adds that several elected officials have admitted the region was not as prepared for the massive storm as it could have been either.
“I believe the underwriting community will have to rethink with care [about] what they should charge for risks in a region with such a complex concentration of values exposed to such storms,” he says.
XL executives go on to say it believes insurance industry losses will be at the higher end of estimates released by modeling companies. The highest prediction of losses has been from modeler Eqecat, which estimates insured losses will total $10 billion to $20 billion—making Sandy the third-costliest U.S. storm ever for insurers.
The insurance and reinsurance provider says the catastrophe modeler it works closely with has yet to release an estimate. This is presumably Risk Management Solutions, which says too many variables exist to product a reliable estimate. Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide says Sandy will cause between $7 billion and $15 billion in insured losses.
James Veghte, chief executive of reinsurance operations at XL, says Sandy “is a significant loss to the reinsurance market, broadly,” but XL does not write a lot in New England “due to our historic concern over winter-weather exposure.”
In terms of losses to insurance carrier clients stemming from commercial flood or business interruption losses, Veghte says it's too early to predict.
As of Nov. 5 XL set up 175 potential claims covering a wide range of potential losses from small claims in its aviation book of business, to larger property clients, adds Gregory Hendrick, chief executive of insurance operations.
He says deductibles, self-insured retentions, reinsurance protections and attachment points will all come into play, making it difficult to say whether reinsurance covers will be impacted by Sandy.
XL posted third-quarter net income of $171.9 million compared to $42.4 million a year ago during the same period. McGavick says the company's earnings have been aided by underwriting initiatives, light catastrophe losses during the third quarter, and favorable prior-year reserve development.
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