Tropical cyclone activity for the rest of the season will be about 90 percent of the average, states the CSU Forecast Team, a slightly increased outlook that is still suppressed due to the likelihood of an El Niño event. In 2011, tropical cyclone activity was 145 percent of the typical season.

The forecast team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, head of CSU's Tropical Meteorology Project and climate-change skeptic, now predict 14 named storms in total, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes sustaining winds of 111 mph or higher.

The scientists have added one storm since their June forecast. The updated prediction accounts for four named storms and one hurricane in May and June.

“We have increased our seasonal forecast from early April and early June, due to a combination of uncertainty in El Niño as well as slightly more favorable tropical Atlantic conditions,” Klotzbach said. “Still, the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2012 season is estimated to be slightly below its long-period average.”

There is a 48 percent chance that a major hurricane will yet make landfall on U.S. shores this year, with a 28 percent chance that the East Coast and Florida Peninsula will be hit and a 28 percent chance that the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville will be affected.