“Everything is dry, so while we might have a rain storm that comes through to suppress some existing fire activity, we are still dry and we see that all across the western United States right now,” he says.

Norman manages the FireRisk Pro product from Pitney Bowes Software that models wildfires. He reports that the fire models did well, but adds that the unpredictability of the weather—particularly short-term weather patterns—exacerbates the conditions.

“Areas we had as low risk did burn, but that was because it was so dry,” says Norman. “The overall wildfire risk may be at one rating in our model, but when the weather changes the fire danger spiked up.”

Norman explains the FireRisk Pro product doesn't predict future weather patterns, but analysts are able to monitor the weather and modify the risk on a day-to-day basis if needed.

“That's not related to the FireRisk Pro product, but it is related to our location intelligence capability of pulling in real time and near real time information so an insurance company can know that an area is extremely dry so wildfire danger is going to be very high,” says Norman.

The models rely on historical weather conditions and how those conditions influence wildfire risk.

“That's more for catastrophe management as a way for underwriters to look at situational exposure,” says Norman. “Underwriters are looking at the risk for the entire year; they're not looking at whether the next four weeks are going to be extremely dry.”

Yet another reason for the widespread fire damage in Colorado was the devastation done to the region's pine trees from the bark beetle infestation, particularly near Fort Collins, Colo., where the High Park Fire was fueled by dead trees. Other factors include the historic method of fighting wildfires through fire suppression.

“The reason there is such a big tree kill is that for the last 100 years we fought suppressed fires,” says Norman. “What fire normally does is thin out the weaker trees. Now we have a dense, dead fuel source throughout the Rocky Mountain West area—especially in Colorado—and the trees are unable to fight off the bark beetles. This enables a higher fire risk, which we do account for in the models.”

Wildfires have become a national risk, according to Norman, who points out that two months ago there were a number of wildfires on the eastern seaboard from the south to the New York region.

“The dryness definitely was a factor in that,” he says. “As the climate continues to dictate things, wildfires are an increased risk. We are seeing the climate is a factor in these fires and there are more high-value structures near these wildland areas that are more susceptible to fire.”

Norman believes it is difficult to predict the extent of a wildfire.

“Generally there is dryness where the fuels are,” he says. “That's one of the bigger static factors. That's what insurers work with. They can't work with the weather patterns. Those are too unpredictable.”

Norman believes insurers are getting better at underwriting weather-related risks as they add people in the catastrophe modeling space that are trying to figure out if they can capitalize on models from an underwriting and claims perspectives.