Tropical cyclones, monsoons and severe weather related to the El Nino and La Nina events are on the rise in the Asian-Pacific region, in part due to global warming, according to the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC and City University of Hong Kong.
The third annual report, released today, focuses on the findings of the 27 research projects conducted by GCACIC members on 2011 climate issues in the Asia-Pacific region and across the globe. Click here to see the complete study.
“The first step in combating climate-related risks is to understand them, which is why GCACIC remains committed to studying the climate issues most pressing to businesses operating within the Asia-Pacific region,” says James Nash, CEO of the Asia Pacific region at Guy Carpenter. “The initiative will continue to provide the resources needed to advise the insurance industry on how to better understand, prepare for and manage the risks associated with natural disasters and catastrophes.”
The study examined in detail climate changes in the following areas:
Tropical cyclones. The report examines the increasing intensity of tropical cyclone precipitation intensity (TCPI) due to global warming and the inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity from 1998 to 2010. The study found that TCPI has been increasing at a rate of about 4 percent over the past two decades through the increase in atmospheric water vapor content under global warming. However, during the time period measured, the study observes that tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific exhibited two distinct active periods and two inactive periods.
Monsoons. The study examined the long-term change in summer moisture circulation over South China, the East Asian winter monsoon changes in the seasonal cycle and extremes in China. From 1960 to 2008, the summer warming trend tended to be more prominent during the most extreme record heat than during other times. The summer season “advanced significantly by about 2 days per decade in most of China.” The study also examined the connection between East Asian monsoons and typhoons, and the relationship between Ural-Siberian thermal blocking and the East Asian winter monsoon season.
ENSO and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) impacts. The study examined the influence of North America sea surface temperature on the onset of El Niño events – suggesting that when the North Atlantic is colder than normal in the summer, an El Nino event is likely to be initiated in the subsequent spring in the tropical Pacific.
(AP Photo/Efrain Patino)
Global Warming. The study found that from 1979 to 2008, the globally averaged water vapor has “significantly increased statistically” in response to global warming. However, the increase doesn't not occur over all locations; although water vapor “significantly” increased in South America and southern Africa, the same can't be said about Australia, although surface air temperature has increased in all three continental regions.
Climate Change. The study looked at Pakistan's two-stage monsoon and links with the recent climate change, specifically the 2010 floods. The study also considered was air quality, measuring nitrogen oxide, aerosol and trace gas pollutants and their different source types. The authors used sun light observations scanning the air masses over Hong Kong, carried out continuously since January 2011 to obtain time series of profiles for major air pollutants.
(AP Photo/Pervez Masih)
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