“This is why I think you can tell we take a somewhat skeptical view” of a market moving quickly toward hardening rates, ALIRT Principal Daniel Paul tells NU.

Paul lists slow economic improvement and a hesitancy among buyers to pay higher rates among other reasons for—at best—a slight market hardening, rather than a pronounced upward swing.

Judging by recent conversations he's had with brokers, “buying behavior seems to be getting better,” says Paul. “It may be that companies can now afford rate increases without endangering the company.”

When buyers and insurers get used to higher prices, he adds, there can be a “self-fulfilling tendency” toward a hard-market shift—which is as much a driver of a hard-market turn as any earnings numbers.

Another factor he says may play a role in keeping prices down: more competitive underwriting. “You hear a lot about data-mining and the increased capabilities of underwriters to really dig down and more accurately write exposures,” he adds. “Better pricing should become a factor in keeping market cycles shallow.”

ALIRT's report also lists continued prior-year reserve releases as another reason for the slow-moving market turn. The composite group turned in a combined ratio of 97.8 for the first quarter—the best result since 2008's first quarter, according to the firm.