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The Monte Carlo Method for Determining Auto Liability, Part One

In the first in a two-part series, we examine how the math-based Monte Carlo method can be crucial in liability negotiations.

By Tom Morris | Updated on May 08, 2012

Determining liability in an auto collision has often been viewed as more of an art than a science. Therefore, it shouldn’t be too surprising that a record number of disputes are being sent to Arbitration Forums for resolution. If you empower the claims adjuster with the flexibility to define the standard to which they compare a driver’s performance, then it is not particularly shocking that the resulting analysis supports their initial take on liability. Because no standard is more valid than the next, you are left with a stalemate of sorts, regardless of how hard you argue.

Although there may be some doubt about an individual liability assessment, there is no doubt about its impact on the bottom line. Not only does it affect the amount an insurer pays on the claim, but it also keeps the company from properly assessing the risk and collecting the appropriate premium. Auto collisions are particularly well suited for scientific analysis. After all, the vehicles involved are governed by the laws of physics described by Newton many centuries ago. Advances in technology not only make a scientific approach feasible, but cost-effective as well.

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