NU Online News Service, Jan. 25, 2:11 p.m. EST
With the death of Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders reducing the organization's operational environment, terrorist threats to the U.S. are likely to involve smaller bomb plots perpetrated by Al Qaeda-influenced homegrown terrorists rather than attacks on the scale of September 11, according to Risk Management Solutions.
In a Terrorism Risk Briefing, RMS says, “In recent years, homegrown jihadi operatives in the U.S. have been more active. These 'self starters' are inspired by Al Qaeda or its associated groups, but may have little or no actual connection to these militant groups.”
Because most plots will involve homegrown operatives with “little technical acumen,” RMS says these plots will likely involve “soft targets with a large volume of people and iconic values, such as hotels” and mass transportation.
RMS says aviation infrastructure may also be targeted due to “the strong interest in attacks against aircrafts” shown by terrorist groups.
The briefing notes that the number of homegrown plots in the U.S. has increased over the past several years, adding that most have been successfully thwarted by law enforcement, such as Najibullah Zazi's attempt to bomb the New York City subway system, Antonio Martinez's targeting of a Baltimore-area military-recruiting facility, and Mohamed Osman Mohamud's targeting of a Portland, Oregon Christmas tree lighting ceremony.
Other homegrown plots have eluded U.S. Homeland Security forces, notes RMS, such as Faisal Shahzad's attempted car bombing in Times Square, which was thwarted only by two street vendors in the area who saw smoke coming from a car.
RMS says homegrown terrorists will likely be influenced by Al Qaeda through the organization's outreach through information-technology efforts.
“Given Al Qaeda's growing push for individual action, homegrown terrorism will likely constitute a persistent credible threat to the U.S. in 2012,” the briefing states.
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