Though the industry is not in the midst of a full-steam-ahead hard market moment, there is some positive movement as pressures such as losses from natural perils, low investment yields and dwindling reserve redundancies weigh on insurers.

More than growth, attention during fourth-quarter calls on earnings will be paid to Jan. 1 reinsurance renewals and pricing improvements in the U.S. commercial lines.

KBW says global reinsurance renewals at Jan. 1 were up an average of between 1 percent and 4 percent, with strength in U.S. property. Additionally, the investment bank says it expects to hear some of the larger insurers tell off mid-single-digit rate increases in commercial books, with others reporting flat results. Still, that is an improvement, KBW says.

Pricing is expected to be up 5-to-15 percent in the homeowners market, and since loss trends in personal auto are edging higher, modest price increase should be seen.

Turning to regional agency and specialty subsectors of the industry, KBW says it forecasts a continuation of favorable reserve development in the fourth quarter but it remains “increasingly concerned about the industry's reserve adequacy in light of deterioration in the more recent accident year, particularly for workers' compensation.”

KBW expects all reinsurers to be somewhat exposed to the flooding in Thailand at varying degrees. Plus, additions to prior-year catastrophes are possible for the group.

Mergers and acquisition activity among brokers is anticipated to improve, especially for the middle-market. KBW says “deal pipelines remain robust and sellers are gradually becoming more comfortable with current valuations.”