Chances are high that 2012 will be another active hurricane season in the Atlantic if an El Niño does not develop, say forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU).
When releasing its early season forecast, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray noted that the CSU forecast team they comprise decided to dispense with the usual numerical forecast for the number of storms. Instead, Klotzbach and Gray issued the forecast in terms of the probabilities “of the key factors influencing the hurricane season.”
The reason for the change, they say, is the difficulty forecasters have in determining whether an El Niño will occur in the Pacific, which impacts the Atlantic hurricane season. The team noted a 45-percent chance that climate conditions that have persisted since 1995 will continue along with no El Niño development in the Pacific. These conditions include warmer water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and reduced vertical wind shear—conducive conditions for hurricane formation.
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