I just spent 10 days on vacation in Italy, and besides the amazing ruins, breathtaking art, delicious food, fabulous wine and exotic locales (Venice is like being in another world!), I was treated to a daily dose of frenzy in the local media about Europe's public-debt crisis.
Greece was the latest troubled nation in the spotlight as European leaders raced to strike a sovereign debt-relief deal to stave off an outright default that could reverberate not only throughout the continent, but around the world.
Italy was very much on the hot seat as well the week I was in town, pressured by its fellow European Community members to get a better handle on its own debt problems by making big, politically unpopular budget cuts.
As they say in the news business, this story has legs. By the time you read this, there will have been dozens, perhaps hundreds of developments. From day to day, and even hour to hour, the situation will change—and we won't know for sure how this is going to turn out for quite some time.
Will the euro zone ultimately remain intact, or will one or more of its members jettison the common currency and go their own way? Will any of the countries default on its bonds? And if there is a default, what will the impact be on the banks holding a good portion of this debt? Even if no country defaults, how will these economies grow following the austerity measures being called for?
Insurers have a big stake in the outcome of these European-debt debates—and not just those doing business overseas. Europe is a huge market for the U.S., which is depending on exports to help fuel its own recovery. Should the worst-case scenario emerge and Europe's debt woes trigger a double-dip recession, insurable exposure growth will be hampered both abroad and here at home in our already struggling economy.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over whether Europe can resolve its debt challenges is likely to play havoc with the stock markets, which were going up and down like a stomach-churning roller coaster as developments in Greece and Italy unfolded.
Being in Italy also made me appreciate some of the advantages we take for granted here in the United States in terms of managing the economy.
Take the euro. I liked the look and feel of the currency itself—the bills featured nice colors and different sizes for different denominations. But since multiple countries share the euro, each has less flexibility than the U.S. does when it comes to monetary policy. The U.S., after all, can unilaterally alter the value of its own dollar in any number of ways. But the countries in the euro zone do not have that luxury with a shared euro, for better or worse.
I'm also not certain Americans appreciate how cheaply we are able to borrow money to cover our budget deficits and mounting national debt. The U.S. is still paying very little to attract capital, even for long-term Treasury bills, while countries in Europe must shell out far higher rates to cover their sovereign debt. The U.S. economy would be in a lot worse shape if the Treasury had to pay what Greece and Italy must cough up to draw public bond buyers.
Americans are historically an insular people, but being in Italy reminded me how economically interdependent we are these days. Insurers and other financial-services firms are rooting for a quick and long-term resolution of the debt problems across the continent, so we can get back to the already difficult business of growing the economy. In that sense, today we are all Europeans.
Ciao!
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free PropertyCasualty360 Digital Reader
Your access to unlimited PropertyCasualty360 content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking insurance news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Weekly Insurance Speak podcast featuring exclusive interviews with industry leaders
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical converage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, BenefitsPRO and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.