NU Online News Service, Oct. 3, 10:31 a.m. EDT
You've probably been looking skyward over the past few weeks wondering about more than just the weather with a U.S. satellite falling to earth recently and the Germans saying one of their satellites will fall next month.
The question for the Germans was the same as it was for U.S. officials—where will it fall?
And like the U.S., it is next to impossible to predict.
That unpredictability of risk is not lost on insurers, as questions are raised about whether space risk is insurable and if the industry should create products for those risks.
Jan Schmidt, a director in Swiss Re's aviation and space team, says that when it comes to falling debris from the breakup of a satellite as it re-enters the earth's atmosphere, insurers are not on the hook for any losses that may occur.
Typically, insurers write coverage for launch of the vehicles. One part of the policy covers the hull value and contents. The second part is liability coverage for any damage a failed rocket may produce during the first few minutes of the launch phase. Aside from that, insurers are not writing coverage.
Government and military satellites do not have insurance, says Schmidt, so any liability associated with those vehicles would be the responsibility of the state that launched it.
However, private companies need to protect themselves from liability exposure, and they are the purchasers of space insurance.
For the U.S. satellite that fell harmlessly to earth a few weeks ago “it was clear who it belonged to and it was easy to trace,” says Schmidt.
However, if the debris is not tracked closely it is difficult to impossible to know where it originated from due to the severe damage the debris sustains on reentry.
“When it is damaged it is very, very difficult to assess fault,” says Schmidt.
The good thing is most of the satellite does not survive reentry, with the exception of substantial pieces like the space station MIR in 2001 and Skylab in 1979.
Both fell harmlessly to earth, but large sections of Skylab were recovered, while MIR fell into the South Pacific.
Schmidt says the risk is small because there is more ocean than land mass for these objects to fall into.
“The risk of someone getting hit is very, very remote,” he says. “Ninety-nine point nine percent of the satellites don't make it back to earth.”
However, the risk of satellites colliding with space debris is another issue, and Swiss Re raised the issue in a report earlier this year.
There is a significant amount of space debris that potentially lies in the path of existing satellites and could do damage. The report notes that there are 16,000 identified space objects and less than 1,000 are operational satellites.
Schmidt says the report raises the question of responsibility and liability if a vehicle is damaged in space by debris or a disabled satellite.
The report says insurers cannot “respond to the challenge space debris poses to their insured operators.” Instead, the “pragmatic approach” is insurers and insureds should work together to promote risk-mitigation efforts. This includes developing legal certainty over the issue of liability and collaborating with scientists “to address this daunting issue.”
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