For the near-term outlook, the NHC says the core of Irene will pass to the north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti this morning, pass near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight, and be near the central Bahamas early Wednesday.

Storm surge is expected to be a significant problem for the Bahamas, as the NHC says water levels will raise by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels over the southeastern and central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The entire coast of the Dominican Republic is expected to see water levels at two to four feet above normal tide levels.

Over the next few days, the NHC says, “The overwhelming consensus is that Irene will gradually turn northwestward over the next two to three days and then move northward through a developing break in the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States.”

The NHC also says Irene is forecast to become a larger than average hurricane.

RMS says, “The NHC extended forecast for Irene has changed considerably over the last 24 hours. The current forecast has the system passing over 150 miles to the east of Florida on a northerly track, which sees the system make landfall in North Carolina the later part of the coming weekend. The forecasted landfall location has shifted over 300 miles east, which is a reflection of the high uncertainty associated with the extended forecast.”

RMS adds that the NHC's “cone of uncertainty” around the track path at landfall covers Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Emily Paterson, associate cat-response manager at RMS, says in a statement, “Under the current forecast, Irene will be a major hurricane when it passes through the Bahamas, when it makes its closest pass to Florida and at its forecasted landfall.”

Irene tracked over the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles and over Puerto Rico on Sunday and Monday. A state of emergency was declared in Puerto Rico where damage reports indicate widespread tree and power-line damage and flooded streets, RMS says.