The tropics are definitely beginning to heat up, both figuratively and literally speaking. At 12 p.m. Tuesday, Tropical Storm Gert was located approximately 600 miles northeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. This tropical storm had minimal effects on the island of Bermuda and is expected to remain a “fish storm,” or one that only affects fish and does not pose any threat to land and those residing nearby.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the Cape Verde hurricane season has arrived, and meteorologists are watching the Atlantic Ocean closely to see what disturbances may develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. The Cape Verde hurricane season got its name because of the climatologically favored time of year when organized tropical waves move off the African coast and across the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. This is often considered the most significant and worrisome part of the hurricane season because the ocean waters are very warm, and any organized tropical waves that emerge off the African Coast often have seven to 10 days to strengthen as they move westward across the Atlantic Ocean. These are the storms that many times become the Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes and threaten the Caribbean islands, U.S., or the Gulf of Mexico.
Right now, ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are near normal, though some areas are seeing anomalies of 1.5 to 3 degrees above normal. In fact, much of the mid-Atlantic coastal waters from North Carolina up through Maine currently have water temperatures anywhere from 2 to 5 degrees above normal. This is very concerning, because above-average water temperatures may prevent tropical systems that move across these areas from weakening as much as they usually do. In fact, this setup fosters the possibility of an enhanced hurricane risk for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, should a tropical system move in that direction.
Hurricane Threat on the Horizon?
Early Tuesday afternoon, visible satellite imagery over the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea showed that several tropical waves were traversing across the ocean waters. During that time, the most significant tropical wave south of Puerto Rico showed some signs of increased thunderstorm development and a weak circulation, both of which are often precursors to tropical storm formation. Computer models predicted that this tropical wave will become a tropical storm by Wednesday, and then a hurricane as it heads toward or just south of Cancun, Mexico. The threat for a Category 1 or possibly Category 2 hurricane affecting Cancun and points south in approximately three to five days is increasing. Given the expectation that this storm will be moving northwest, there is a good chance that it could emerge in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and threaten some land massed along the Gulf Coast, including Mexico and possibly Texas. The chance of this system developing into a tropical storm or hurricane is now 80 percent.
In the long range, there is heightened concern that an organized hurricane will threaten the Caribbean and possibly the East Coast of the U.S between August 25 and September 1. One reliable computer model indicates that a tropical wave is about to emerge off the African Coast and Cape Verde Islands and will strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next five to seven days. Some computer models suggest that this hurricane will be a threat to the Virgin Islands, the Bahamas, Mid-Atlantic coast, and even the Northeast. While there is plenty of time to see how things develop, there is an 80 percent chance that a hurricane will be a threat in the Caribbean or southwestern Atlantic Ocean during this time. I expect the forecast track to change numerous times between now and then, but my confidence level is high that a hurricane is in our very near future.
Howard Altschule is a forensic meteorologist and the president of Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC, a New York-based weather expert firm that provides site-specific weather information and opinions for claims, litigations and climate studies in the U.S. and abroad. His firm also provides hurricane forecasting services for a variety of clients and personalized weather forecasts for corporations year-round. Altschule has appeared on “The Today Show,” MSNBC, NBC, Court TV and CNN. He was appointed by the Governor of New York to serve on the “Panel on Homeowners Insurance Coverage” and holds his American Meteorological Society “Seal of Approval.” For more information or sample written reports, visit www.WeatherConsultants.com or call 518-229-8846
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