NU Online News Service, May 25, 11:32 a.m. EDT
Weather Services International (WSI) has issued another update to its 2011 predictions for what will surely be a closely watched hurricane season in the Atlantic beginning in about a week.
WSI, a member of the Weather Channel Cos., forecasts 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1.
An active season does not necessarily mean storms will find U.S. land. Last year’s historic season of 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes meant nothing to the United States, as no storm made U.S. landfall.
However, WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford says, “We do expect a much more impactful season along the U.S. coastline.”
The U.S. has been spared a hurricane landfall since 2008, but the country has not had a three-year stretch without a landfall since the 1860s, he adds.
The forecast is unchanged from the one issued by the Andover, Mass.-based company last month and it is generally in line with other forecasts.
Most recently the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says conditions in the Atlantic were ripe for 12-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 intense hurricanes, and the well-known team at Colorado State University calls for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.
Intense, or major, hurricanes are Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which mean the storm packs sustained winds of 111-130 mph and is expected to cause serious damage.
Each of the forecasts exceeds what is considered the historical average hurricane season, although what is defined as “average” varies somewhat according to the source. Predictions for 2011 do fall within the level of activity that has occurred during an active tropical period that began in 1995, says Crawford. Since 1995 the season has averaged 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.
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