Holborn says its “adjusted range” from modelers is $19 billion to $32 billion. To develop this adjusted range, Holborn says it “adjusted [modelers’] estimates to a common basis, excluding life but including marine and auto lines,” and left out CBI and onshore cargo.

Holborn’s loss-estimate range, meanwhile, includes LAE, earthquake, tsunami, demand surge, CBI and cargo, and life coverages.

Life and accident expected losses drove the estimate up by between $2 billion and $4 billion

The inclusion of CBI and cargo had a more significant impact. This line was misinterpreted by the modelers in coming up with their estimates, Holborn says.

“The modeling companies have analyzed the policies provided by Japanese companies and reflected that coverage is limited and often does not include earthquake,” the reports reads. “But their analysis appears to not consider the coverages U.S. and European insurers give for their insureds’ indirect Japanese exposures.”

Holborn notes that General Motors has already filed a $1 billion CBI claim for plant exposures in the U.S. Using this as a guide, Holborn puts losses related to CBI and cargo at $5 billion to $10 billion.

Additionally, Holborn says reinsurers could have as much as a $25 billion gross loss, which would match losses from Hurricane Katrina and 9/11.

“Reinsurers have fewer resources after this event (both capital and retrocessional protections) than they did before,” Holborn says. “Another event later in the year would cause significant stress.”