NU Online News Service, Feb. 14, 2:49 p.m. EST

Hosni Mubarak's resignation as president of Egypt on Friday and military takeover has brought a measure of stability to the nation, but uncertainty about the future and potential flashpoints throughout the region have insurers casting a wary eye on political risk coverage.

In an e-mail, Elizabeth Stephens with Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group noted: “Instability and unpredictability in Egypt is a deterrent for underwriters. A protracted government change and a radical departure in governance will worry markets in the context of foreign investment, particularly in the oil and gas sectors where the insurance market risk in this area is in the billions.”

She said the banking system is in some disarray, but overall there is “no real sense of catastrophic loss arising yet.”

She added, “Capacity for Egypt will be tighter in the coming months and rates higher.”

After 18 days of protests that grew into hundreds of thousands of Egyptians rising against the government, the 30-year reign of President Mubarak ended with an announcement by his hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman. He read a brief statement that Mr. Mubarak had resigned on Feb.11.

The military established firm control over the weekend, announcing that a military council would take over governing the nation until elections could be held. All indications point to a plan for a relatively quick period of military control before elections.

“For the most part it has quieted down, but there is an unknown,” said John T. Lavelle, practice leader, Trade Credit & Political Risk for Willis.

“The [insurance] markets are watching with a great deal of caution still,” observed Stephen Kay, U.S. practice leader for Political Risk & Structured Credit for Marsh. “Mubarak stepping down caused a great deal of euphoria, but there is still a great amount of uncertainty about what will follow next.”

Part of that concern is whether the military will in fact give up power or just become comfortable and want to remain in charge. There are also questions about the nation's bureaucracy with entrenched Mubarak loyalists and how that will affect the nation's future.

“It's a country in transition,” noted Mr. Lavelle.

Then there is spreading unrest throughout the region after reports surfaced about protests and clashes with police in Yemen, Iran, Algiers and Bahrain.

The primary exposure will be political violence and business interruption, Mr. Lavelle said, observing that the major source of any claims will come out of Cairo, where most of the violence and protests took place.

It is still too early to know what that might add up to, he said, explaining that there is a 30- to 60-day period after the incident has occurred before a claim can be filed, depending on the largely manuscript policies. In the insurance world as a whole, the losses are not expected to be major.

There are some reports of damage, said Mr. Kay, and in some circles there is speculation that losses could reach the level of a month-long series of protests of the government in Thailand last year. The political unrest through April and May last year is estimated to have caused between $500 million and $1 billion in losses.

“It is too early to tell what the impact will be,” he said.

What does not appear to be a concern is Confiscation, Expropriation, Nationalization exposure, as no moves have been made against major Western industry, Mr. Lavelle said. However, Mr. Kay suggested that a backlash could develop against businesses that were too close to the Mubarak regime and there could be consequences in the future for that.

Mr. Kay said that for any new Western business seeking to start in the region, it will be difficult to get political risk coverage at the moment as insurers “wait and see” what is happening. “It has been a fast-changing and fast-moving situation,” he said.

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