Editors are notorious for filling their January opinion pieces with predictions for the New Year, and National Underwriter's editors are up to the task as well for 2011.
It's such a gloomy day outside our offices in Hoboken today that I thought I'd lift some spirits with a set of light-hearted predictions. Here is a digested version of the list that also appears in the Jan. 10 edition of NU's print magazine.
To ease us into the year ahead, I facetiously suggest that 2011 may include the following events:
• The role of the Federal Insurance Office will remain a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
• After passage of the omnibus bill of the industry's dreams, the homeowners market will experience a resurgence in Florida. Before the champagne is finished, someone realizes there could be something wrong with the auto no-fault system.
• As a sign of continued difficult economic times, the industry deals with the rising numbers of homeowners burning down their homes, although no one knows where or has any statistics.
• A hurricane will maybe definitely strike somewhere in the United States.
• Beginning in October, people in cars will begin to hit deer more often (or at least we'll get a lot of press releases about it.)
• Long after anyone with a computer realized the same, the industry continues to talk about how social media may have constructive uses.
• AIG Repays Government; Conquers Planet.
I'm also providing some betting lines on two relevant issues:
• The over-under on the amount of times the National Flood Insurance Program sunsets and then extended after September is 4
• The over-under on the number of times the alleged effects of Chinese drywall are explained in stories: 31.
• The number of homeowners ultimately successful in drywall litigation against insurers: 0
Finally, what will be in and what will be out? Here is my own unique perspective.
• Out: The use of credit scores as an underwriting tool.
• In: Accident/crash taxes.
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