NU Online News Service, Nov. 18, 4:05 p.m. EST
Research on climate change is ongoing, but risk management evaluation and strategies need to begin now to avoid the consequences of escalating property loss, according to a study by AER and AIR Worldwide.
The study, "An estimate of increases in storm surge risk to property from sea level rise in the first half of the twenty-first century," was conducted jointly by environmental research firm Atmospheric & Environmental Research (AER) and its sister company AIR Worldwide, a risk modeling firm.
It found that the expected average annual losses for the entire U.S. Gulf and East Coast regions in 20 years is $12.3 billion--an increase of 18.6 percent from current levels--if sea level change and tropical storm activity stay consistent with current warm sea surface temperature trends.
The study noted that during this time, the Mid-Atlantic Coast is expected to experience the sharpest percentage increase in losses due to climate change.
On a local basis, the study said regions most at risk are centered on the Mississippi Delta, the Gulf Coast of Florida south of Tampa Bay, and Cape Hatteras. The Mississippi Delta and Cape Hatteras are also areas where the sea level is rising most quickly, according to the study.
When it comes to climate change, the study said, simple answers are few and not sufficient to allow for precise projections. Society, however, does not need to wait until all the answers are certain in order to act, the study added. Rather, it said, society must make critical risk management decisions in the face of uncertainty.
A valuable approach is to inform decision-makers with sensitivity studies and potential future scenarios to enable the formation of resilient strategies designed to cope with climate change, according to the study.
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