Election Day was a good one for the property and casualty insurance industry, with the results boding well for many industry initiatives and concerns.
The election of a strong Republican majority in the House will likely slow federal inroads into regulating the industry despite the uncertainty created by the need for a huge federal bailout of American International Group.
In addition, the industry invested heavily in defeating Rep. Gene Taylor, D-Miss., who consistently sought to add wind protection to the National Flood Insurance Program and to close certain loopholes that allowed the industry to reduce the risk of insolvency through claims from a huge hurricane.
While the industry was divided on whether there should be a national catastrophe plan, the antis apparently won out through the defeat of Rep. Ron Klein, D-Fla., one of eight Democrats to bite the dust in that state.
Rep. Klein's support for the so-called "Homeowners Defense Act" won him the ire of the anti-catastrophe plan folks, although an anti-incumbent surge by voters, as well as the fact that it was a marginal Democratic district anyway, probably played a stronger role is his defeat.
While the results of this month's election reduced fears of creeping dual regulation and probably paved the way for longtime reauthorization of the NFIP in the next Congress, insurance industry concerns remain.
The market impacts of economic trends weigh heavily on the minds of executives and industry analysts. There is also the likelihood of political gridlock in Congress, at least for the next two years.
A weak economy dims hope for strong growth in revenues and profits, and low interest rates for the foreseeable future will crimp growth in investment income.
In addition, there are specific issues still on the 2010 agenda that are worrisome for some p&c industry factions.
For example, Bradley Kading, president and executive director of the Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers, noted that "the international reinsurance tax issue can still be in play as a revenue raiser in the lame duck session."
Moreover, he said, "In 2011 the issue may still be alive as part of a corporate tax policy discussion. Time will tell."
Change always brings unintended results.
As noted by Charles Cook, the political prognosticator who predicted a Republican tidal wave even before the election of Scott Brown to Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts, said: "Every midterm election, people look for predictive things, and they're always wrong."
"The curtain drops, and a new play begins," he said.
The possibility of unexpected results is heightened by the fact that there will be almost 100 new members of the House.
Joel Wood, senior vice president for government affairs for the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers, said the election "emasculated" the "Blue Dogs"– conservative Democrats, who "for many years [were] the surging and deciding coalition in the House, and the one that we business interests frequently turned to for help."
In some ways, Mr. Wood said, "Washington is becoming more and more like Sacramento–hard left and hard right, and a shrinking middle."
Moreover, he said, "there are some losing Democrats that we regret to see go."
He cited Rep. Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota, a former insurance commissioner. "He looked after our interests for years and was defeated after he voted for health reform," Mr. Wood said.
Mr. Wood said the "same for Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana, a former agent."
In the states, there is also the likelihood that perhaps half of the state insurance commissioners will be different by the end of 2011.
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