Editor's Note: This article originally appeared in National Underwriter, P&C.
Modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) said the end of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is not the time to relax. Conditions "are still ripe for further activity."
Neena Saith, senior catastrophe response manager for RMS, said wind shear, which can break up a hurricane, is low and sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea remain warm.
Wind shear conditions "are expected to reduce over the next few days across the Caribbean," which will "play a key role in hurricane activity over the coming weeks."
However, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are dropping to below the threshold to support tropical cyclone activity, RMS said.
About 20 hurricanes have formed in November since 1950, said RMS. Most affected the Caribbean, and just four reached major hurricane (Category 3) status.
The Caribbean storm Tomas, now a tropical depression in the south central Caribbean, was the fifth hurricane to form in October and the 12th hurricane to form this season. There have been 19 named storms thus far during the hurricane season, yet none have made landfall in the United States.
Only two seasons--1969 and 2005--have seen 12 or more hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Tomas is expected to strengthen again into a Category 1 hurricane and hit the extreme southwest of Haiti on Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.
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