A similar Conning report in April predicted 2010 net premium growth near 2 percent.

"Our expectation is for anemic premium growth overall in 2010--weaker than GDP growth--as exposure growth lags economic recovery," Clint Harris, analyst at Conning, said in a statement.

Conning said it expects more robust growth of nearly 5 percent in 2011 and 2012 as the result of "a combination of increasing exposures and increasing premium rates."

Conning added, "We expect that larger underwriting losses in 2010, assuming near average or larger catastrophe losses, will drive premium rate firming in 2011."

Drilling down into specific lines, Conning said it expects 2010 positive growth for personal auto after three years of declining premium, with improving exposure growth due to new car sales and rate firming driving the premium growth. Conning expects the personal auto combined ratio to show continuing improvement over the next few years--98.5 in 2010, 96.9 in 2011 and 95.7 in 2012.

Homeowners is expected to show "moderate premium growth over the forecast horizon" of 2010 to 2012, driven primarily by increases in insured values and continued price firming. Weak housing market results, though, continue to have a negative impact on Conning's assumptions regarding growth in exposure units. A stronger catastrophe impact and increases in non-catastrophe loss costs are expected to negatively affect the homeowners line, and the combined ratio is expected to be 110.9 in 2010, 111.5 in 2011 and 112 in 2012.

Conning said workers' compensation premiums will likely continue their decline in 2010 due to limited exposure growth and rate competition. Lower earned premiums and limited loss reserve redundancy will lead to a 2010 combined ratio of about 116, with rate competition keeping the combined ratio there through 2012, Conning said. Increasing job growth from the economic recovery should drive premium growth in 2011 and 2012, according to Conning.

Premium growth will be slow for commercial auto in 2010 due to limited exposure growth in the recovering economy, but exposure growth is expected to pick up in 2011 and 2012, driving premium growth to 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, in those years. Inflation on medical costs as well as increased demand on atrophied equipment and driver pools will keep the combined ratio over 100 for all three years, Conning said.

General liability premium reduction should come to an end in 2010, Conning said, with modest premium growth of 1.3 percent for the year. Conning added that decreasing loss severity and frequency trends from 2006 and 2008 are not expected to continue.