Given the number natural and man-made catastrophes already omnipresent in today's news, it hardly seems fair to point out that tropical storm season is here, and by most predictions, will be a season to remember.
Although forecasting storm activity is akin to predicting stock market activity, there is historical evidence on which the research is based. Weather Services International (WSI) Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford summarized the scientific reasoning behind this year's near-universal agreement on a busy storm season.
“The 2009 tropical season was the quietest since 1997, as an emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic waters to suppress widespread storm development,” said Crawford. “However, the primary drivers for tropical activity have sharply reversed course this year and everything is in place for an incredibly active season.
“The El Nino event has vanished completely, resulting in a decrease in western tropical Pacific convection and a concomitant decrease in the vertical wind shear that typically acts as a detriment to tropical Atlantic development,” continued Crawford. “More importantly, however, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for May, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which made its predictions for the season this week, also weighed in with a pessimistic view.
“The main uncertainty is how much above normal the season will be,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. “Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Ni?a develops this summer. At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Ni?a to develop.”
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