He said his firm believes the industry is 20 percent overcapitalized, basing the assessment on current operating leverage metrics--measures of operating results to surplus--compared to normal levels.

"I anticipate that earnings will decline through 2011 largely because of the soft market in commercial lines and reinsurance," he concluded.

At a session a day earlier, John Molbeck, president and CEO of Houston-based HCC Insurance Holdings said, "I think we have to accept the fact that we may be at a new normal."

To be sure, he said the market isn't showing the disturbing signs of softness that were evident from 1997 through 2001, when insurers would agree to write three-year non-cancelable policies, for example.

"We're a lot smarter as an industry, [but] this is the first market in 30 years that AIG [American International Group] hasn't been out in front leading," Mr. Molbeck said.

"They provided a huge amount of capacity," he said, putting the amounts at several hundred billion for both property and liability lines.

"When AIG decided to change the pricing, the market was able to follow along. This will be the first market cycle where we don't have that event," he said.

At a later session, John Doyle, president and CEO of Chartis U.S., the U.S. p&c operations formerly part of AIG, responded, "I have come to learn over the last 18 months that we're responsible for all that ills the insurance industry."

"If I accept responsibility for anything, it's for not going away," he said, noting that over the past year or so, "some new investment came into the business probably betting on our failure"--adding to the excess capacity.

Another executives Thomas Motamed, chairman and chief executive officer of Chicago-based CNA, gauged the impact of catastrophes on a market turn.

He said brokers often tell him that a catastrophe is needed to end the soft market.

"They believe that will drive the market turn, [but] I don't believe that for a second," he said.

"The big companies with strong balance sheets can afford to take some hits," he explained, adding that the best companies are well-capitalized--much larger than they were a decade ago, when a single catastrophe may have changed the market.

"How about two catastrophes?" he asked rhetorically.

"These are companies that make $1 billion or $2 billion a year.... What you would need is multiple events," he said, postulating a natural catastrophe, an accompanying financial crisis and perhaps a terrorist event."

He suggested that a more important factor relevant to insurance pricing changes is what happens with the economy.

"Until the economy gets better, people are not going to pay us more for the product," Mr. Motamed said.