Last week, III came out with a comprehensive study on the impact of Deepwater Horizon and the possible fallout we can expect to see in the insurance industry. True, the industry may only end up shouldering 20 percent of the direct p-c losses, but a disaster of this magnitude will doubtless spread just as inexorably as the oil itself to all areas — especially as the litigation sharks begin to circle (as of May, 110 lawsuits and counting).

According to III, first- and third-party insurance policies that will take the biggest hits are:

• Business interruption/loss of production income
• Comprehensive general liability
• Environmenta/pollution liability
• Operators' extra expense (provides coverage when controlling well after a blowout)
• Physical damage
• Workers' compensation/employers liability

One of the biggest insurance angles of this story, however, doesn't lie in potential claims or rate increases, but in risk management — or lack thereof. With the U.S. Attorney General announcing that federal authorities were opening criminal and civil investigations into the spill, it's likely that a host of risk management oversights will come to light, including increasing pressure on the Minerals Management Service and its lackadaisical regulation of offshore drilling.

In fact, based on the number and magnitude of oil spills over the last 20 or so years, nuclear power plants, in spite of their bad press, are beginning to look like paragons of safety in comparison (there's an interesting blog on the subject here).

And as far as pinning hard-market hopes on Deepwater fallout, I wouldn't hold my breath — everyone expected that a hard market would be inevitable after the losses of Hurricane Katrina, but it didn't happen. Given the fact that there's still plenty of capacity in the market, it seems unlikely that a single event, even as big as this oil spill, will cause the soft market to magically disappear.