NU Online News Service, May 27, 2:40 p.m. EDT

With hurricane season set to begin June 1, the nation's weather service predicted an above average season, with an increasing likelihood of a major storm reaching the shores of the United States.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (http://bit.ly/bciNah) released its prediction today for this year's hurricane season, saying it expects an "active to extremely active" hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.

For the season, NOAA said there is a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

o 14 to 23 named storms--storms with top winds of 39 mph or higher.

o Of that number, 8 to 14 will be hurricanes, storms with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher.

o Of those hurricanes, 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes--category 3, 4 or 5 storms with sustained winds of at least 111 mph and higher.

The seasonal average is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said in a statement. She cautioned that everyone needs to be prepared for the increased risk.

NOAA said that a weaker El Ni?o in the eastern Pacific would mean less wind shear, or strong upper atmospheric winds that tear hurricanes apart. Atlantic sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average, adding fuel to hurricanes.

"The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Ni?a develops this summer," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Ni?a to develop."

Federal Emergency Management Administration Administrator Craig Fugate said FEMA is working hard to prepare for the season, and he also urged people to be prepared.

Meanwhile, a recent survey from Trusted Choice, the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America branding campaign, found the majority of households are not prepared for natural disaster.

In a telephone survey of American households, conducted by International Communications Research, 22 percent said they are fully prepared in case of a disaster. More than half, 51 percent, said they are somewhat prepared, and 23 percent of households said they are not prepared at all.

When it comes to taking the basic steps, 68 percent said they had not created a photo or video home inventory of their belongings. More than 40 percent said they had not assembled a disaster and emergency supply kit in their home.

When it comes to protecting property, 68 percent said they had not made any structural improvements or reinforcements to better protect their property from a disaster.

On insurance issues, 36 percent said they either did not know or did not have adequate insurance coverage to get them through a disaster and 62 percent said they had never discussed a complete disaster preparedness plan with an insurance agent.

The survey has an error rate of plus or minus 3 percent.

"Lives and property are saved when people know what to do before, during and after a disaster," said Madelyn Flannagan, IIABA vice president of agent development, education and research. "This national study further demonstrates that unfortunately, most people are not ready in the event of a natural disaster."

A list of recommendations on how to prepare is available at the IIABA's website at http://bit.ly/cZ92V5