Take weather predictions with a grain of salt, but if meteorological experts are correct, this year's Atlantic hurricane season could be costly for insurers, especially along the Atlantic Coast.
Since late 2007, Guy Carpenter has collaborated with WSI Corporation, a provider of weather-driven business solutions, to provide pre-season hurricane landfall forecast rates for different regions in the U.S. Its report, "GC ForeCat," is published monthly up until the start of the hurricane season, which begins on June 1, 2010.
GC ForeCat's approach is a bit different from other estimates in that the forecast estimates rate the risk of tropical storm landfall according to region rather than just focusing on overall activity. The four regions include the Gulf, Florida, Southeast, and Northeast.
According to the March update, the Southeast region remains most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming shore in 2010. The report states that the rate of 0.74 for the Southeast represents the mean number of land-falling tropical cyclones in that region for the forthcoming hurricane season, higher than the 1951-2007 average landfall rate of 0.41 but a decrease on February's forecast rate of 0.96.
Notably, the forecast landfall rate for the Northeast region jumped from 0.29 in February to 0.62 in March, more than double the average landfall rate of 0.29. Meanwhile, the forecasts for Florida and the Gulf regions were unchanged and continue to show landfall rates of 0.60 (above average) and 0.59 (below average), respectively.
For more reports and updates, go to www.guycarp.com.
TABLE 1
GC ForeCat Landfall Rates
| Region | March 2010 Forecast Landfall Rate | 1951-2007 Average Landfall Rate |
| Gulf (coastline from Texas to Alabama-Florida border) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| Florida (entire Florida coastline) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| Southeast (coastline from Atlantic Florida-Georgia border to Cape Hatteras) | 0.74 | 0.41 |
| Northeast (coastline from Cape Hatteras to Maine) | 0.62 | 0.29 |
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