If Moscow's mayor had gotten his way, he'd probably put a kink in the profits of some predictive modeling companies. Why predict the climate when you can control it?

I became aware of Yury Luzhkov this past October, when I read a few news stories of how he intended to use the Russian Air Force to spray a chemical over clouds (cloud seeding) before they floated over Moscow, keeping the blizzard of flakes outside the city. His motives were to save money on road clean-up and improve the quality of life of Muscovites. (Reportedly Luzhkov already has scientifically conjured the city to be sunny on major annual holiday celebrations, keeping the sky from, yes, raining on the local parades.)

At the time, I thought: Wow. No need to analyze climate patterns. A reduction in personal injury as well as car accident and related medical claims . . . lower premiums, perhaps? And if snow can be manhandled, how about finding ways to sidetrack hurricanes or other stuff the forces of nature may throw our way? (I also hadn't decided whether insurers would welcome or dread such initiatives–fewer claims but maybe fewer customers, as well?)

After a while, I started wondering whether Luzhkov had gotten the upper hand. I poked around online and found an update on the site globalpost.com. And it would appear it's not nice to tamper with Mother Nature.

According to an article on the site dated Dec. 29, there had been snowfalls the prior couple of weeks, which brought “traffic to a halt, with one light snowfall in mid-December leading to 125 miles worth of traffic jams. Muscovites continue to exchange horror stories of being stuck in traffic for up to seven hours that day, as nearly 3,000 road accidents were reported around the capital.”

Sticking to a handy excuse, Luzhkov was quoted as blaming the failure on the weathermen who couldn't predict the storms far enough in advance.

Getting an advance view might not be as problematic for some insurers–particularly those that have predictive analytics on their priority list for 2010. For instance, a recent Novarica study points to predictive analytics “as being prioritized by some size/sector groups.” Specifically, the analyst firm found 20 percent of large L&H, 14 percent of midsize P&C, and 8 percent of large P&C companies rank predictive analytics among their top three project areas this year. (Interestingly, by comparison, insurers show greater interest in achieving nearer-term insights: Business intelligence for repository and reporting received a 50 percent response in this same category from midsize L&H carriers and around 20 percent from the other three aforementioned size/sector groups.)

Seemingly, insurance software and data folks can rest easy (for more on the growing value of predictive analytics, turn to p. 24, and for business intelligence, p. 12)–at least until next winter. Luzhkov reportedly vowed he's not giving up the fight.