cat modelKaren Clark has had an interesting career path. A pioneer in the catastrophe modeling business, she sold her own firm eight years ago, but now essentially makes her living warning people about what cat models can’t do–which is replace human judgment. But have insurers gotten the message?

Our latest article on this subject appeared in NU’s Feb. 22, headlined “Are Insurers Too Dependent On Catastrophe Modeling?” (You may access the piece by going to http://bit.ly/chMiSI.)

NU’s Phil Gusman interviewed experts in the field, and what he found is very comforting, yet scary. Models are a terrific tool to help red flag any potential over-concentration of risk, but they are no substitute for the knowledge, experience and even intuition of human underwriters.

Phil reported that in Ms. Clark’s view, as he put it, “models are not absolute truths, but rather tools that offer generalized best estimates. They can contain uncertainties, limitations and even inaccuracies, she warned, insisting they are not designed to replace underwriters or be the final word on which risks are acceptable to an insurer.”

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