The latest survey, published earlier this month, shows that 24 percent of respondents believe the market is less than $20 billion, compared to only 8 percent in 2008.

At the top end of the scale, roughly 20 percent of respondents continue to believe that the market is $40 billion or higher–a figure that is consistent with the prior survey in 2008.

Between the two extremes, 29 percent of those responding to the survey this year said the market is somewhere between $30 billion and $40 billion, while 38 percent placed the figure in the same range in 2008.

Roughly 27 percent said the market size is $20-to-$30 billion in gross premiums in this year's survey, compared to 33 percent in 2008.

This year's survey also revealed that fewer program carriers believe they are part of a growing market than they did in recent years past. Only 37 percent are forecasting market growth.

The figure hasn't been that low since Guy Carpenter's May 2005 survey, when only 38 percent saw growth ahead for the MGA/PA program market.

In the September 2006 survey, the figure leapt to 65 percent, and in the most recent prior survey–published in May 2008–56 percent of carriers surveyed had predicted a growing market.

In this year's survey, the most common response was that the market would remain flat, with 46 percent believing this to be the case, while 17 percent foresee market shrinkage.

According to the report, the complexion of respondents has changed this year, with traditional multiline now outnumbering specialty carriers. In the past, the two types of carriers were split 50-50 among total survey participants, but this time around, 63 percent are multilines, and only 34 percent are specialty insurers.

Responses to many other survey questions–about challenges facing the market, targeted program sizes and business lines, and required MGA/PA services–were generally consistent with prior surveys.

One notable exception involved the compensation of reinsurance intermediaries for bringing new opportunities to carriers.

Last year, 100 percent of the respondents said they would compensate intermediaries–either by paying a finder's fee or increasing MGA commissions to include a provision for the intermediary.

This year, 18 percent said they would do neither, the Guy Carpenter report noted.

Asked to list their top five challenges, carriers highlighted many of the same concerns as they did last year, with new business production remaining the No. 1 challenge (selected by 66 percent of respondents), followed closely by the challenge to maintain current rate levels (61 percent) and the challenge to maintain or increase premium (58 percent).

Roughly 40 percent listed the entrance of new market competitors among their top-five challenges, up from about 30 percent in the May 2008 survey.

The report also gives information about carrier access to admitted paper, carrier interest in industry meeting and conferences, and carrier perceptions about profitability.

Both the latest report and the 2008 report reveal that 92 percent of carriers put the overall program business segment combined ratio in the 90-to-100 range, but most now expect the result to be at the higher end of the range.

While the 2008 report had 68 percent of survey respondents pegging the combined ratio in the 90-to-95 range, only 49 percent believe those low-end figures are possible for 2009.

The full report and blog entries summarizing sections of the report are available on Guy Carpenter's intellectual capital Web site, www.GCCapitalIdeas.com.