Hurricane season is here, and with it comes uncertainty. Even amidst a bounty of other industry distractions, hardly a day goes by that a weather expert's opinions, reasoning, and assorted statistics doesn't cross my desk. They are filled with abbreviations like ENSO and SST, and phrases like multi-decadal signals and La Nina effects. All try to explain why this year will or won't be a busy year for storms. Generally, they incite more debate than anxiety.

I'm alternately impressed and skeptical of these meteorological authorities. Impressed because I imagine that making substantiated guesses on something so intrinsically random seems likely to elicit only one response: criticism. (That is something with which those in the adjusting field could empathize.) So when you're willing to make yourself a target, willing to put the apple on your head and ask Bill Tell to load up his crossbow and take his best shot, consider me impressed.

I'm skeptical because, well, an accurate storm-season forecast still feels like fool's wisdom. Even if a forecaster is right, is there ever a way to prove it? What is the up side? Bragging rights? It's a Catch-22 situation that this month's contributor from the National Weather Service is forthright in addressing. Above all else, he believes the primary benefit of making storm-season predictions is to encourage preparation amongst homeowners and businesses. I can applaud that kind of honesty, and I think there is value in the going through the exercise.