AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released an expanded hurricane season forecast for 2009. The forecast builds on Bastardi's early season forecast by calling for a reduced overall number of storms, but warns that the East Coast of the U.S. could still be at risk of a major land falling storm.

"As we predicted in our early season forecast, we're anticipating a major reduction in the number of overall storms compared to last year," said Bastardi. "Levels may be as low as 2006 or perhaps lower. However, we expect three storms to deal at least tropical-storm-force winds to the U.S. coast, two of which could be hurricanes, and perhaps one major hurricane."

Bastardi and his team of forecasters now predict a total of 10 named storms that will produce six hurricanes, two of which will be major. Bastardi points to several factors that are influencing the forecast and lowering the overall number of storms, including:

• A reverse to a weak El Ni?o, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is most likely in the middle to latter part of the hurricane season.
• Higher pressure in much of the subtropical Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last year. This will result in increased dust and dry air being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate. The added dry air and increased wind shear will tend to inhibit hurricane formation.
• Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic can reduce hurricane activity and intensity. This may create a season in which storms are reaching intensity farther north and east than last year, leading to less impact in the Caribbean areas hit hard last year.

Although the number of hurricanes is expected to be below normal, there is a larger potential area of impact compared to previous years. Thus, it might be more difficult for businesses and government agencies to proactively prepare and allocate resources for the upcoming 2009 hurricane season. This could result in an increased financial burden on government agencies and businesses that are unprepared in the event of a land falling hurricane.