PRINCETON, N.J.--There is little if any risk of an intense hurricane making a direct hit on New York City and flood hazard maps overstate the potential risk for flooding in the city, a catastrophe modeler declared at a conference here.

Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer for Risk Management Solutions, made his assertion during a meeting last week at Princeton University titled "Cat 3 Hurricane in the Northeast: Willis Insurers' Summit."

Using as his prime example what has become known as the New England Hurricane of 1938, also dubbed the "Long Island Express," which devastated the region, Mr. Muir-Wood said hurricanes that hit Florida and the Gulf Coast region with high winds well above 111 mph (the lowest speed for a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) would be unlikely to strike the Northeast.