A financial analyst says the current economic crisis does not bode well for insurance brokers' earnings and one casualty of the fallout could be Arthur J. Gallagher, which could be acquired.

In an analyst's note, Meyer Shields with Stifel Nicolaus said the reduction in payrolls due to the economic crisis is posing "a strong headwind to the insurance brokers' domestic revenues." He said government statistics show a precipitous decline in employment since mid-2008 to a 3 percent-plus drop in February 2009.

That deterioration directly affects lines of business impacted by the employment figures, especially workers' compensation, employment practices liability insurance and employee benefits. Lower earnings can impact the amount of coverage businesses buy, as well as impact broker's earnings, he reasoned.