"The market has no choice but to take account of where we truly are. It will harden by fourth-quarter 2009."

When Tap Johnson III, president of TAPCO Underwriters in Burlington, N.C., shared that prediction with NAPSLO Daily, his view of the timing of the return to hard market conditions was typical of others delivered by more than a dozen NAPSLO members.

Mr. Johnson's assessment of "where we truly are"–the industry's underwriting profit picture for the year–was gloomier than most, however.

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