In 2008, no one was predicting a turn to a hard market until late 2009 at best, as NU's NAPSLO Daily wrapped the last of more than three dozen interviews with broker and insurance executives at NAPSLO in San Diego on the same Sept. 12 date.

Commenting mainly on predictable topics that had been routinely reported on during the prior eight months--strategies for surviving a soft market, merger activity, new product development, and the impact of an economic downturn on their businesses--the only potential wild card seemed to be Hurricane Ike, which headed for Texas that evening.

Even the few executives who turned their attention from Jim Cantore's forecasts on The Weather Channel playing in the hotel lobbies to check financial and insurance online news services on their handheld Internet devices, would have little clue about weekend events in New York that would rewrite the history of last year's events as pre-NAPSLO and post-NAPSLO--or more correctly, pre-AIG bailout and post-bailout.

"AIG Considers Emergency Funding Options, With Rating Downgrade Looming," the National Underwriter Online News Service reported early the following Monday morning, detailing efforts to secure a multibillion-dollar emergency loan from the Federal Reserve to avoid a devastating ratings downgrade.

Two days later, the Fed came through, with our daily news service reporting that the U.S. government would take a 79.9 percent stake in AIG in exchange for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York providing up to $85 billion in emergency financing to stave off a bankruptcy filing at the parent company of surplus lines leaders Lexington Insurance, American Inter-national Specialty Lines Insurance Company and the admitted specialty divisions of the domestic brokerage group.

The rest of the details of additional financial support, executive and personnel changes, and looming asset sales continued for months afterward. In the last quarter of 2008, the daily by reporters for NU's online news service, and weekly in the pages of NU magazine, where Editor-In-Chief Sam Friedman chose the AIG tale as the No. 1 property-casualty insurance story of the year on a list published in the Dec. 18 magazine print edition.

AIG's commanding position in the surplus lines and specialty insurance markets made the drama on Pine Street the clear top-story choice on a companion list of top-10 stories specifically impacting the E&S/Specialty insurance segment in 2008 too. With reports about the actions of wholesale brokers and specialty insurance competitors responding to AIG client concerns dominating our NU's specialty market features in late 2008, the topic edged out previous contenders for the top story spot--the continued soft market, and even the subprime meltdown that was the catalyst for AIG reversal of fortunes.

The related text boxes provide the complete list of our top-10 stories impacting the surplus lines and specialty insurance markets and the top-10 stories impacting the property-casualty industry in 2008, as selected by NU's editors in mid-December.

But that was then.

What's happening now? How is 2009 likely to shape up and what will be the most important events or major trends that will impact the E&S/specialty segment in 2009?

We asked NAPSLO members to use their experience in the industry--and to dust off their crystal balls--to develop their predictions for this year. We'll share the responses in a post-conference report that will be e-mailed on Monday, Mar. 2.

Top 10 Stories Impacting E&S/Specialty Insurance Segment In 2008 (chosen by NU)

#1--Troubles Impacting Largest E&S Carrier Prompt Broker, Carrier Reactions

AIG Bailout Impact Reverberates In Specialty Insurance Market

#2--Subprime Fallout; Claims Mounting

D&O, E&O Loss Estimates Near $10 Billion

#3--This Space Is Getting Crowded

Standard Market /Bermuda Competitors

#4--E&S Execs Reveal Soft Market Strategies

Global expansion, internal reorganiza-tion, product diversification approaches are among carrier, broker strategies

#5--M&A Deals Rise In Specialty Sector

#6--Would You Believe Claims-Dispute Insurance?

Brokers, Insurers Continue Developing Innovative Coverage Solutions

#7--D&O Excess Coverage Battles Heat Up

#8--Hot Lines Can Burn Insurers--Check Out Medi-Spas

#9--Specialty Carriers Seek Gems Among Program Business Riches

#10--Who Are We Anyway? Associations Tackle Rebranding Initiatives

NAPSLO, AAMGA Focus on Marketing, Branding Efforts

Top 10 Stories Impacting Property-Casualty Insurance Industry In 2008 (chosen by NU)

#1--AIG Nearly Drowned By Subprime Debacle

Feds forced to bail out nation's most prominent carrier to forestall market collapse

#2--Financial Meltdown, Recession Rock Insurers

As investments plummet and economy shrinks, carriers report grim bottom lines

#3--Economic Woes Don't Stop Soft Market Pricing

Despite capital crunch and surplus hit, carriers still having hard time raising rates

#4--Will Democrats' Gain Be Insurers' Loss?

Industry fears Obama victory could mean higher tort costs and more regulation

#5--Cat Losses Spike After Two Quiet Years

Led by Hurricane Ike, $22 billion-plus in claims tops 2007 and 2006 total combined

#6--Mighty Players Fall, While One Rebounds

Finite re scandal takes down Ferguson; Spitzer resigns; but Greenberg rebounds

#7--Urge To Merge Fuels Insurer, Broker Deals

Tough economy might spur more M&As, but prices drop and financing hard to get

#8--Party Pooper! AIG Forced To End Producer Junkets

Firestorm of criticism after bailout sparks broader debate over propriety of bonus trips

#9--Goliath Marsh Takes On David's Agencies

Mega-brokerage to reenter middle-market by launching a new Main Street firm

#10--NAIC May Plunge Into Ratings Game

Regulator group considers launching new organization to assess insurers