Mr. Bradford noted that the big "monkey wrench" in all the projections is what will happen with the economic situation.

A number of factors are converging, but one thing that stands out over the last couple of quarters is that "not only are underwriting losses higher, but the investment side is performing very poorly," he said. "A lot of companies posted investment losses for the third quarter and they may for the fourth quarter as well, so that's a fairly strong harbinger for the end of the soft market."

Those investment losses have come to a head because of the financial crisis, he added.

"This is an unusual convergence of effects here," he observed. "It was a heavy hear for cat losses and there were the losses arising from the subprime meltdown and the credit crisis, but then there were also the investment losses arising from it as well, so all those factors have started to put some real pressure on insurers to raise premiums."

He added that he expects buyers will begin to see premiums rise by July 1 renewals.

Daniel H. Kugler, member of RIMS board of directors and assistant treasurer, risk management at Snap-on Inc., commented, "Risk managers tracking RIMS Benchmark Survey results are keenly aware that we may not see continued price reductions for long. The most recent data show that the soft market isn't over yet, but it may be losing steam."

Data from the survey corroborates Advisen's recent forecast that the commercial insurance premium market cycle is close to its bottom. Advisen analysts projected that commercial insurance prices should begin increasing by the fourth quarter of 2009 or the first quarter of 2010.

The average general liability premium fell more than any other line at 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter, but this decrease is modest when compared to the 9.6 percent decline in the third quarter. Property premiums were off by 3.8 percent, again modest when compared to the 8.5 percent decline in the third quarter.

Advisen said workers' compensation continues to reflect little volatility with a 0.8 percent decrease in the fourth quarter, consistent with a two-year trend.

Unsurprisingly D&O continued to show two trends: an increase for financial institutions buying insurance in the face of a meltdown in that sector and falling average premiums for commercial business in other sectors.

D&O average rates fell 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 2.1 percent in the third quarter. Excluding financial institution buyers of insurance, the fall in premiums was 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter, as compared with 7.5 percent in the third quarter, according to the report.

"Overcapacity has driven a long soft market and the events of this past quarter may portend a market shift for commercial insurance," Mr. Bradford said in a statement.

"In addition to much higher than average catastrophe losses in 2008, insurance companies are facing claims from the subprime meltdown, global credit crisis and now even from the Madoff scandal."

Mr. Bradford continued that "reserves for these claims and material losses in investment income have led to negative earnings and new capital is scarce. We expect the next few quarters of data from the RIMS Benchmark Survey to show the end of the soft market."

For information on participation in the surveys, visit www.RIMS.org/benchmark.