In the wake of an active 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season, Colorado State University Researchers (CSU) Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have issued an official forecast for the impending 2009 season. In their recent report, which was released earlier this month, the forecasters at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Science anticipate a "somewhat above average" season without an El Nino event.
Klotzbach and Gray expect the formation of 14 named storms during the coming season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Half of these weather events are likely to strengthen into hurricanes, with three predicted to be "intense" hurricanes. Storms classified as "intense" reach Category-3 status or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale and sustain low-level winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
In addition, the report mentioned a 63 percent probability that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the United States in the coming year.
The team developed and implemented a new statistical forecast methodology for its early December prediction, which it employed for the first time last year. "This was developed because of the fact that our real-time forecasts issued in early December from 1992 to 2007 did not show skill in real time," Klotzbach and Gray said. The team also stressed that the current report is preliminary and is therefore subject to modification.
"No one can completely understand the full complexity of the atmosphere-ocean system," they said. "But, it is still possible to develop a reliable statistical forecast scheme [that] incorporates a number of the climate system's non-linear interactions.
"There is a large amount of uncertainty, especially with our early December prediction, issued seven months prior to the start of the hurricane season."
Forthcoming updated forecasts for 2009 activity will be available on April 7, June 2, August 4, September 2, and October 1, 2009. A verification and discussion of all 2009 forecasts will be issued in late November 2009. The current report as well as past forecasts can be found at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts.
The official storm names for the 2009 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season have been released:
AnaErikaIdaMindyRose Wanda
BillFredJoaquinNicholasSam
ClaudetteGraceKateOdetteTeresa
DannyHenriLarryPeterVictor
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
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