Claims News Service, Aug. 19, 5:04 a.m. EST — It appears that Tropical Storm Fay, which seemed sure to become Hurricane Fay, will not achieve Category-1 hurricane status.

According to a Guy Carpenter Cat-i report, all hurricane warnings have been discontinued in Florida. However, a tropical storm warning is in place for Florida's west coast from the middle of Longboat southward, along the east coast from Flagler Beach southward and for the Florida Keys.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Fay could produce 4 to 8 inches of rain over southern and east central regions of Florida, with up to 10 inches possible in some areas. The NHC also warned that Fay could cause coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal levels in southwestern Florida while tornadoes could develop in southern and central areas.

However, this updated forecast is far less severe than Monday's, which predicted that Fay would move to the west of Florida Keys and make a landfall along the western Florida coast south of Tampa and Saint Petersburg as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of around 75 mph. Florida Governor Charlie Crist declared a state of emergency and authorities in the Florida Keys closed schools and county courts.

In actuality, Tropical Storm Fay made landfall at Cape Romano in southwest Florida as a tropical storm with sustained winds of around 60 mph. The NHC said tropical storm-force winds extended 125 miles from the center of the storm at landfall point. The storm is traveling in a north-northeast direction and this motion is expected to continue today, taking the centre of the storm across the Florida Peninsula, passing near Orlando. Fay is forecast to weaken as it moves up the Peninsula before briefly re-emerging in the Atlantic and curving back into the coast of northeast Florida.

The US Census Bureau says up to 10.8 million people could feel the effects of Fay. Reports said Naples was hit by heavy rain and the streets in the city were deserted after police ordered a curfew. There have been some reports of minor damage with trees being downed as far away as Miami. Although far from the center of the storm, officials warned Miami could be hit by tornados and flooding and reports said up to 2,000 people had lost power in the city.

Elsewhere, officials urged residents on Marco Island to evacuate their homes but reports said many people stayed put. No storm-related deaths or injuries have been reported in Florida to this point, and although the strong winds knocked down some trees and signs, no major damage was reported in the Florida Keys.

Over the weekend, Fay made its first landfall in the Dominican Republic and Haiti as a tropical storm and killed at least 14 people. In Haiti, officials said about 3 people died when a bus attempted to cross a river swollen by rain from Fay (although some reports have said up to 50 people died in the incident). Eleven others were killed in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from flood-related accidents.

In the Dominican Republic, more than 2,000 people were evacuated to shelters as the storm downed trees, damaged hundreds of houses and uprooted power lines that disrupted supplies to more than 15,000 homes, according to local news reports. Fay also moved across Haiti and alerts were posted along with orders to evacuate flood zones as heavy rain and strong winds battered much of the country.

For Guy Carpenter's full report, click here.

Interested in more catastrophe news and in-depth articles? Head over to Claims' catastrophe channel for more information.

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