While Georgia, Florida, and other parts of the South are suffering from drought, Iowa had too much water. One bridge I tried to use to cross the Missouri was closed. I detoured and then picked up I-80 to cross Iowa, following old U.S. 6 in parts. Within 48 hours after I had passed Des Moines, parts of I-80 were closed because of flooding of the Cedar and Iowa Rivers. Towns farther down the Mississippi all the way to New Orleans were bracing for the worst of it, sandbagging levies in hopes they would hold.

I had exited west of Grinnell to visit a small village where some distant cousins of mine had lived, then traveled to the Amana Colonies for dinner at one of their famous German restaurants. The villages that comprise the Colonies — a 19th century utopian communal religious group that founded the appliance manufacturing company that still bears their name — are on the Iowa River. It was flooded, but the bridge was passable that evening. It was probably flooded and blocked by debris the very next day.

I kept thinking back to a column I'd written a number of months ago about “smart dams,” which are computerized dams in areas prone to flooding. When water flow increased, such dams would pump the excess water through pipelines to the states out west where water is so vitally needed. Sure it would be expensive, but not half as costly as the cleanup of the cities that were devastated by the June, 2008 floods.

In the 1990s, Iowa suffered the 100-year flood. This one is being hailed as the 500-year flood. So what's in store next year for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City? The “Millennium Flood,” perhaps? Is it global warming or just El Nin?? Those floods are going to be increasingly common, and they will probably be alternating with droughts destined to be just as devastating to the crops. The farmers will be talking about crop insurance claims, and catastrophe adjusters will be busy all over the Midwest, deciding what damage is covered, especially if the insured had flood insurance, as well as what is excluded under other forms.

The Effect on Claims

The rising fuel and food costs, enhanced by crop losses because of flooding or drought, will result in decreases in food exports from the U.S., and sharp price increases in food in our own grocery stores. That, in turn, may result in urban unrest, such as riots, as poorer people will be unable to afford the food necessary to feed their families. The rest of us may just be shelling out more to buy our steaks and barbecued ribs and chicken, but with the combination of the housing crisis, rising gasoline prices, and now food costs, we can expect to see repercussions that lead to horrendous damages and claims.

Further, there will be increasing pressure from people in those poorer nations to immigrate to America. If we can't stop illegal immigration now, then what will it be like when the starving hordes start flowing across our borders.

Many readers may not be old enough to remember the political conventions of the late 1960s and early 1970s. There were riots in both Chicago and Miami that led to widespread damages and injuries. Part of the protests was over the funds being spent on the Vietnam War, but there were underlying issues of inflation and economic problems as well. While ten times the number of American military were killed in Vietnam as in Iraq, nevertheless war and the economy could again trigger similar outrages at the 2008 conventions. The riots in Miami during the 1972 convention led to fires and damages across the city that kept Miami adjusters like me at the time quite busy. While the optimist might say, “So, it's good for business,” the realist says it only makes matters worse. We don't need our cities to be burned again.

Hopefully the crises will pass; the cost of oil per barrel will decrease; something other than corn will be found to make ethanol; and food prices and distribution will improve. Who knows? More money could be allocated for Amtrak to improve its service, offer more trains to more places at higher rates of speed, and take the pressure off the highways. Just maybe somebody will invent that smart dam and pump flood waters to the deserts before they ruin our cities.

Ken Brownlee, CPCU, is a former adjuster and risk manager based in Atlanta, Ga. He now authors and edits claim-adjusting textbooks.