Following their December predictions for an active 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season, several prominent forecasting teams have issued updated reports. Although the experts at Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU), WSI Corporation, and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) differ somewhat in their approaches and specific storm projections, they concur that the 2008 season will be above average. As Dr. Todd Crawford, seasonal forecaster at WSI, explains, this expectation stems primarily from the probable continuation of warmer-than-usual Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

“Since 1995, most tropical seasons have been more active than the long-term averages because of the warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures,” Crawford said. “The current La Nina event, which is decaying somewhat this spring, should leave behind a wind shear environment that is favorable for the development of tropical systems in the summer and fall of 2008. We have increased our forecast slightly based on continued Atlantic warming in recent months, along with the persistence, albeit a bit weaker, of the La Nina event.”

The extended-range forecast released in April 2008 by CSU researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray anticipates the formation of 15 named storms, eight of which are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, and four are predicted to be “intense” hurricanes. Storms classified as “intense” typically reach Category-3 status or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale and sustain low-level winds of at least 111 mph. The methodology of this year's CSU forecast is based on a recently developed statistical technique that draws on 58 years — spanning from 1950 to 2007 — of data.