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Scientists Calculate Estimated Damage for Doomsday Quake

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recently published a report that analyzed the estimated damage that would occur in Southern California if an earthquake similar in size to the recent event

By Eric Gilkey | Updated on May 27, 2008

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recently published a report that analyzed the estimated damage that would occur in Southern California if an earthquake similar in size to the recent event in China took place along the San Andreas Fault.The hypothetical situation, referred to as the Shakeout Scenario, was created by geologists through an analysis of the amount of potential motion on the part of the San Andreas fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture, a 200-mile long section from the Salton Sea in the Coachella Valley to just south of Gorman.

With this in mind, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking. Engineers and building professionals used the models of ground shaking to estimate damage to the built environment. They determined that an earthquake registering a 7.8 on the Richter scale would “kill 1,800 people, injure 50,000, cause $200 billion in damage, and have long-lasting social and economic consequences.”The report said that building types known to be vulnerable to damage and collapse would sustain major damage, and all un-reinforced masonry buildings within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault would be completely destroyed. These collapses would contribute to more than $33 billion in damage to buildings.

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