During a press conference at last year's annual meeting, Mr. Anderson explained that Vision 2017 is “aimed at studying potential future scenarios and developing a better understanding of what the distribution system might look like in 10 years.”

By starting this forward-thinking initiative, AAMGA will evaluate “trends or tendencies out there that we can follow on and monopolize on,” he said, noting that Tom Albrecht, the current president, would continue the work in 2007 and 2008.

Both Mr. Albrecht and Mr. Anderson are members of the 2017 group, which also includes Robert Fulwider, president of the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, and three carrier executives: John Hayden of American Modern, Chris Jameson of Max Specialty Insurance Company, and John Latham of Markel Corp.

The group meets regularly to discuss trends and opportunities that may change the dynamics of the E&S market in 10 years. Participants already have made progress and will soon have findings to report, according to Mr. Heinze.

During a separate, early March gathering of members at AAMGA University East in Philadelphia, members attending one of 17 educational courses heard some of their peers speculate on possible future-world scenarios. Mr. Heinze, leading a panel of four MGA executives, coaxed each to envision where their agencies and the E&S marketplace would be in 2018.

Adam Devine of XS Brokers Insurance in Quincy, Mass., predicted his agency will be bigger and that regulatory changes mean MGAs will handle more admitted business.

“Today, your shop might be 80 percent E&S lines carriers. That might be 50 percent 10 years from now,” he said, also predicting many more MGAs would move in a direction that some are going in now–becoming aggregators of local retail agent business for standard companies.

Frank Makowski, president of Jimcor Agencies in Montvale, N.J., foresees more mergers and acquisitions–the continuation of a trend to create more large national generalist wholesalers. “The expense side, the cost of transacting business has gone up in multiples–almost geometrically,” and MGAs need to be a certain size, he said, noting that size considerations are forcing them to look into more regions and lines.

“The business is going global,” he said. “You're going to either have to be able to do something internationally, or partner with another MGA somewhere else and work with each other.”

Len LoVullo, president of LoVullo Associates in Buffalo, N.Y., presented a vision of technology that raised eyebrows–involving what he speculated could be knowledge receptors in the future.

“We're going to have a chip in our eyebrow with every movie ever made and every book ever printed–and with a thought you'll activate it and see through your eyes. You'll have the entire Library of Congress in your head and be able to come up with an answer to anything,” he said.

Supporting his view that such advances are just 10 years away, he said, “just two years ago, I never dreamed my cellphone would have the ability to have e-mail, voice mail, a camera, my entire calendar, Internet access, a satellite map of every street in every town of the world, an alarm clock, a calculator, and an endless supply of my favorite music.”

Mr. LoVullo and Mary Marines of Pennock Insurance in Chadds Ford, Pa., agreed that with such advances, identity theft and other tech-related exposures will rise. In addition, wars and pandemics will create new exposures that will in turn create opportunities for the E&S market, they said.

The MGAs went on to debate about how technology will impact day-to-day interactions with co-workers and customers. While all said technology is allowing more employees to work from home, Mr. LoVullo and Mr. Mastowski predicted a move back to the office in 10 years.

“We're going to realize that working in a group is better. That's going to come full circle,” Mr. LoVullo said.

Ms. Marines disagreed, noting teleconferencing capabilities recreate an office atmosphere at home and that rising energy costs will cut down commutes. “We can all be sitting around our screens either looking at the entire room, or just looking at each other–wherever we might be.”

MGAs on the panel and in the audience also debated the pros and cons of automated underwriting advances for some products.

“Time saved by underwriters who were writing those commodity products…should be used to develop relationships, so they can bring more business,” Mr. Mastowski said.

From the audience, Jim Roe of Arlington/Roe in Indianapolis encouraged colleagues to change their thinking about their roles as underwriters, instead embracing expanded roles as experts in risk management and financing in the future.

“We have to start shifting our thinking…from task orientation to how do we make lives whole again,” he said.

Such lively exchanges are sure to continue at educational sessions set to kick off the annual meeting this month.

On May 18, AAMGA University will simultaneously offer three four-hour courses starting at 8:00 a.m. In keeping with the Vision 2017 focus on analyzing industry trends, one of the courses–”Insurance Trends,” led by Markel Southwest Vice President Chris Behymer–promises to give a “comprehensive update of what is the current state of the wholesale and surplus lines industry.”

The two other course offerings examine sales and underwriting considerations in the commercial auto line and the impact of cultural issues on employee performance and agency profitability.