In a reversal of what most scientists have been warning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently completed a study that said a warming global ocean could positively influence the winds that shear off the tops of developing hurricanes. This effect creates the possibility for fewer Atlantic hurricanes to strike the U.S., which means homeowners' insurers could soon experience fewer hurricane claims than expected.
“We looked at U.S. land-falling hurricanes because it is the most reliable Atlantic hurricane measurement over the long term,” said Chunzai Wang, physical oceanographer and climate scientist with the NOAA, in a release.
Wang also noted that other factors are involved in Atlantic hurricane activity besides wind shear, such as atmospheric humidity, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature.
According to the NOAA, observations from 1854 to 2006 show a warming of sea surface temperatures occurring almost everywhere over the global ocean, with large warming in tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans. The study showed that warmer waters in the tropical Pacific, Indian, and North Atlantic oceans produce opposite effects upon vertical wind shear. Overall, warming in the Pacific and Indian oceans is of greater impact and produces increased levels of vertical wind shear, which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.
The hurricane seasons of 2006 and 2007 both failed to produce the high number of storms that most experts and meteorologists expected, bolstering the NOAA's study. With the start of the 2008 hurricane season just a few months away, it remains to be seen if the trend will continue.
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