Claims News Service, Nov. 28, 1:19 p.m. EST -- With the 2007 hurricane season coming to a close this Friday, Nov. 30, storm forecasters at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University are admitting that, for the most part, their predictions failed to reflect actual events.
"Our 2007 seasonal hurricane forecast was not particularly successful," said Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, who authored several hurricane prediction reports and updates throughout the year. "We anticipated an above-average season, and the season had activity at approximately average levels."
In their pre-season prediction report for the 2007 season -- made on Apr. 3 -- the pair predicted that there would be 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five "intense" hurricanes (those that reach Category 3-status on the Saffir-Simpson scale). They affirmed those numbers on May 31, 2007, the day before the hurricane season began.
At the time, the prediction seemed plausible, especially given the early formation of Tropical Storm Andrea -- a storm that formed almost a month prior to the official start of hurricane season -- and Tropical Storm Barry, which formed on June 1. Other forecasters seemed to agree, with many viewing the slow 2006 season as an exception, not the rule. But in actuality, 2007 produced 14 named storms, six hurricanes, and two "intense" storms that reached Category 3 or higher. Out of those storms, only one tropical depression, two tropical storms (Barry and Gabrielle), and one hurricane (Humberto) made U.S. landfall. The latter is said to have caused $500 million in damages.
Besides the early surprise of TS Andrea, Klotzbach and Gray noted in their report that several other unique characteristics of the 2007 season. The two will release their first forecast for the 2008 season on Friday, Dec. 7, 2007.
o Fourteen named storms formed during the 2007 season. Since 1995, 12 out of 13 seasons have had more than the 1950-2000 average of 10 named storms.
o Six hurricanes formed during the 2007 season, very close to the long-term average (5.9 hurricanes per year).
o Two major hurricanes formed back to back during the 2007 season.
o 33.50 named storm days occurred in 2007. This is the lowest value of named storm days since 1994, when only 27.75 named storm days occurred.
o Hurricane Dean became a Category 5 hurricane in August. Hurricane Katrina became a Category 5 hurricane in August 2005. The most recent year with a Category 5 hurricane in August prior to 2005 was Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
o Eight named storms formed in September. This ties the record, set in 2002, for most named storm formations during the month of September.
For the full 53-page report, please click here.
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