Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released an updated forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity this year, lowering its predictions of storm activity.
The forecasters, Prof. Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea with the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Center in the United Kingdom, still anticipate a busy season, though. The two predict that the 2007 season will be 40 percent above average, and that there is a 72-percent chance that this year will be in the top third of all the years tracked. But given the dearth of storm activity so far, it's not surprising to see estimates begin easing downward.
How much did the estimates recede? According to the forecast, TSR now expects that 9.8 tropical storms will be named this year, with 5.6 becoming full-fledged hurricanes. More than three of those hurricanes are predicted to reach intense hurricane status, which is defined as being of Category 3-strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Previously this year, TSR had predicted numbers as high as 11.9 tropical storms, with 7.9 reaching hurricane status and four becoming "intense."
According to a report from TSR, the forecast spans the period from June 1 to November 30, 2007 and employs data through to the end of June 2007. TSR's two predictors are the forecasted trade-wind speeds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecasted sea-surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. TSR said that the former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in the main track region.
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