We may have escaped unscathed this past hurricane season, but a forecast from London-based Tropical Storm Risk predicts a bad 2007. The long-range forecast predicts an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with a strong probability that more hurricanes will slam into the United States than usual, based on average figures for the period 1950 to 2006.
The report said that 16 tropical storms are likely to occur in the Atlantic basin, nine of which could be hurricanes and four likely to be so-called intense hurricanes. Five tropical storms are likely to hit America, of which two will be hurricanes, TSR said.
It anticipated a combination of conditions that would indicate a higher-than-average hurricane season. In 2007 the trade winds, which blow westwards from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, will be weaker than normal, while the sea temperatures between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes form, will be warmer than normal, TSR said.
If you are inclined to disregard these ominous warnings based on the widely inaccurate predictions by forecasters for 2006, TSR has a retort.
“The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Nino conditions from mid-September,” TSR said. “There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before.”
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