It is incredible that after whooping it up on Election Day to celebrate gaining control of not one, but both houses of Congress, the Democrats are now bracing for bitter disappointment if South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson is unable to fill out his term after falling ill earlier today. It just goes to show you how tightly split the country is politically, and even culturally, when a life-threatening illness hitting one U.S. Senator could upset the country's balance of power and turn the Congressional agenda on its head. Meanwhile, the development could have a substantial impact on the insurance industry's legislative wish list.
Having the Republicans maintain control over the Senate after all could mean the industry will have a lot more trouble accomplishing its most important federal goal in 2007–extending the reinsurance backstop under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act.
Leading Democrats–such as Sen. Chris Dodd, from the insurance stronghold of Connecticut–has been saying he not only wants quick action on TRIA (set to expire around this time next year), but would rather implement a longer-term, perhaps even permanent solution.
That could go out the window if Sen. Johnson is unable to take his seat. Having South Dakota's Republican governor (Michael Rounds, a former insurance agent!) appoint a replacement to fill out his term through 2008 would leave the Senate at 50-50, which would make Vice President Dick Cheney pretty much a full-time 101st senator, holding the tie-breaking vote.
And as you all know, the Republicans have been less than supportive of TRIA, with President Bush and friends believing that terrorism risks should be handled by the private market, rather than be subject to a federal “bailout.”
At the very least, the loss of Sen. Johnson would make committee leadership appointments, hearing topics and subpoena targets all incredibly problematic.
This is what the country's come to. Even if Sen. Johnson recovers, we're one traffic accident or heart attack away from a seismic shift in the country's political control. That makes for a volatile, and ultimately unstable body politic.
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