Mr. Bastardi pointed out that hurricanes are following the same pattern seen in the mid-20th century, when the earth warmed and hurricanes served their purpose in cooling the earth.

Between 1933 and 1965, he said 11 major hurricanes hit the United States. From 1966 to 2003, there was only one. Now, the cycle is once again reaching the high-end with three major storms in 2004 and 2005.

The primary culprit for the warming trend is not global warming, which he dismissed as media-hype, but increased sun-spot activity.

He said the assumption that there are more storms being generated is also the result of more data that can be collected. Unlike the past, satellites can now spot hurricanes in places where they were possibly missed years ago.

The idea that global warming is increasing hurricane activity, he said, is disputed by a number of scientists including hurricane forecaster Professor William Gray at Colorado State University.

Emphasizing his point that the media is misguided on global warming, he noted some articles that appeared in “Time” and the “New York Times” back in the mid-1940s touting global warming.

However, he said the hurricane cycle is in the middle of increased activity and warned that Florida could be in for a number of strikes before the end of the cycle.

Insurers also have to be concerned with exposures from the increased population along the coastline. It is not so much that hurricanes are more destructive, he indicated, but that there is more human presence to be destroyed by the storms.

“The vulnerability is growing because there are more people in harms way. That may be their choice, but that is what is going on,” observed Mr. Bastardi. “You have to understand that if we are in this cycle…that we are going to have to confront the idea that we have to look at this in the big picture and not from season to season.”