Welcome back, my friends, to December and the holiday season! As is our tradition here at Policy Issues, we set aside our typical insurance analysis for a moment of fun and frivolity, as we acknowledge the foibles of our favorite business. So, don your kerchief or cap, grab a cup of eggnog or hot chocolate, play your favorite holiday music and settle back for a relaxing review of this year's best insurance reading.

Freakosurance. So you think you understand the wheels that drive our world, do you bunky? Thanks to common sense and long study, you're convinced that you've got this insurance thing all figured out, O Designation-Bearing One? If so, then prepare to climb down from that pedestal and eat some humble pie after reading this fascinating collaboration between a young-yet-brilliant actuary and his reporter acquaintance. Together they deliver some often-surprising insights about many of the “facts” upon which our industry's rating tables rest.

If we believe the authors, nearly every sacred predictive cow we currently possess is better suited for the dinner table than the actuarial table. Who could have known that correlating sumo wrestling statistics with the revenue of Chicago crack dealers would render more accurate hurricane predictions than the current practice of analyzing Weather Channel video?

You've no doubt read about the dispute over one of the book's most shocking and controversial findings–that auto rates are four times more accurate if predicated not upon credit scoring, but rather on which Monopoly token an applicant favored in childhood. According to the author's surprising, yet solidly documented, research, “battleship” drivers, whether married or not, are 32.7% less likely to have a serious auto accident later in life than those choosing the puppy. Coming in a surprisingly close second to the battleship users are those who selected the race car–but only until reaching age 55, after which their experience deteriorates significantly. Those using the shoe are best referred directly to the assigned risk pools. As you may have heard, those who lost game pieces and had to resort to buttons or bottle caps have sought injunctive relief from insurers' adoption of the book's findings. Bob Hunter also testified before Congress against the practice of basing rates on game-token preferences, on the grounds that he opposes anything “monopolistic.”

Adjusters of the Caribbean. Avast, me hearties! Buckle your swashes, haul those keels and lash yourself to the decks for one of the wildest insurance adventures ever! This rollicking foray into the whirlpools of hurricane claims adjusting follows the loyal crew of the good ship Gulf Coast as they deal with carpetbagger contractors, scalawag citizens, albatross attorneys and fickle FEMAns–all while attempting to accurately adjust thousands of property claims arising from the storm of the century (or the decade, or possibly the fortnight, depending upon your favorite meteorological prognosticator). While many saw the struggle simply as wind versus flood, wizened veterans of past campaigns knew well that just below that placid surface lay true danger. Many a good ship and crew had foundered upon the shoals of public distrust and the reefs of roaring politicians. If you enjoyed “Andrew: The Imperfect Storm,” you'll devour every word of this page-turner. Will our heroes survive the storm and its political flotsam and jetsam? Or will they, like the good crew of the Edmund Fitzgerald, go down after taking on water–whether wind driven or not? And if you think we've given away the cliffhanger finale, be forewarned-the true ending to this tale is yet to be told!

The Tripping Point. Brilliant social scientist Hedley Lamar, best-selling author of “Hard Market, Soft Market: Things My Rich Dad Taught Me About Dealing With Carriers,” returns with more thought-provoking insights into insurance carrier behavior. According to Lamar's assertions, carriers are now totally beholden to “black box” scenario algorithms. These proprietary and closely guarded secret formulas purport to tell a carrier precisely when to exit an existing marketplace in order to best safeguard policyholder reserves and executive bonuses. Lamar's true stroke of genius is setting aside the complicated mathematics required by these mysterious “boxes” and instead studying the output, as represented by carrier market-withdrawal decisions of the last several decades. Here is a sample of his findings regarding the homeowners policy:
o Number of hail losses allowed prior to nonrenewal: 2.
o Number of theft losses allowed prior to nonrenewal: 2.
o Number of fire losses allowed prior to nonrenewal: 2.
o Number of water damage losses allowed prior to nonrenewal: 2.
o Number of hurricanes hitting any coastal area prior to mass nonrenewals along entire continental coastline, even if all losses result from flooding: 1.

Agents will find these and other of Lamar's findings essential for pursuing strategic planning initiatives. Also recommended is this text's companion work, “Who Moved My Markets? Your Future with Lloyd's of London.”

Forms of Our Fathers. Amidst the roiling waters of today's turbulent insurance world, it's easy to forget that there was once a time when many considered our industry to be staid, placid and–yes–even boring. Those were the days when ISO revised the forms once each decade instead of once per quarter. That was the time when the “C” in CGL meant comprehensive, not commercial–and no self-respecting CGL would be caught dead without a BFCGL endorsement attached! It was a time when the differences among an SMP, OL&T and M&C were not just esoteric but real E&O stuff. Can you imagine an era when the BOP, MOP and COP were just a gleam in some forms drafter's eye, and dwelling forms began with “DF” instead of “DP”? In those days, an SFP really meant something–all 147 lines of it! Long before the PAP and BAC seized the high ground, we got along quite well, thank you, with a veritable auto salad of BAP (the B stood for “basic,” not “business”), SAP, FAP and CLAP.

As you peruse this fond recollection of a bygone era, you'll find yourself falling under the influence of its warm and inviting tribute to those venerable forebears of the standard forms we know today. No matter how frenetic your current life, within moments of reading the opening paragraphs, you'll find yourself feeling staid, placid and–yes–even bored. If your idea of a great afternoon includes a refreshing nap, then you'll appreciate this gem.

A very Merry Christmas and a restful holiday to all! See you at the bookstore!

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